Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence∗
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium, or the difference between risk-neutral and statistical expectations of the future return variation, predicts aggregate stock market returns, with the predictability especially strong at the 2-4 month horizons. We provide extensive Monte Carlo simulation evidence that statistical finite sample biases in the overlapping return reg...
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We investigate whether stock returns of international markets are predictable from a range of fundamentals including key financial ratios (dividend-price ratio, dividendyield, earnings-price ratio, dividend-payout ratio), technical indicators (price pressure, change in volume), and short-term interest rates. We adopt two new alternative testing and estimation methods: the improved augmented reg...
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The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between the actual and riskneutral expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attributed to time variation in the part of the variance risk premium associated with the special compensati...
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predict...
متن کاملInternational stock return predictability under model uncertainty
This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predict...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0022-1090,1756-6916
DOI: 10.1017/s0022109014000453